Western Montana Asking-to-Sale Price Study

Study 01 · MT Lux Market Research

Research question: How different is the asking-to-sale price gap when the starting point is the original asking price rather than the list price recorded in the closed-sale export?

The answer matters because a sale-to-list ratio describes a relationship between two selected prices. It does not, by itself, describe every change between a home's first appearance on the market and its closing. This study measures both baselines for the same sold records.

The main finding: two baselines, two different gaps

The combined median original-ask-to-sale gap is 2.84%. The median exported-list-to-sale gap is 1.58%. Both statistics use the same 796 closed records. For every record, the percentage is calculated first; the middle of that distribution is then reported.

The overall figures pool individual records. They are not an average of the three market medians. Missoula County accounts for 466 of the 796 observations, so the combined result should not be treated as an equally weighted comparison of the three markets.

Missoula County · 2.06% · 466 sales
2.06%

Ravalli County · 3.15% · 202 sales
3.15%

Whitefish · 4.38% · 128 sales
4.38%

All bars share a 0%–5% scale. The table above supplies the exact values and the second price baseline.

Below, at, or above the exported list price

Shares are rounded independently and may total 100.1%. The presence of above-list sales is a reason to avoid converting a market median into a universal offer rule. These records contain successful closings, not every listing that was offered for sale.

What the original price adds

In 255 of the 796 records, or 32.0%, the exported List Price was below the Original List Price. Six records had an exported list price above the original price, and 535 had equal values. These comparisons describe the net difference between recorded endpoints. They cannot reveal how many changes occurred, when a reduction happened, or whether the price moved up and down along the way.

The median Original List Price minus Close Price was $15,000 across all 796 records. The median List Price minus Close Price was $9,000. Those dollar medians include zero and negative differences. They are not averages among only the homes that sold below asking, and they are not measures of seller net proceeds.

A closer look at original asking-price bands

Grouping by original asking price keeps the starting-price definition consistent. A home originally listed at $1.05 million stays in the $1 million to under $2 million group even if it later sells below $1 million.

These are descriptive comparisons of different properties. They do not isolate the effect of price tier, location, condition, acreage, or property type. The downloadable aggregate table includes the other eligible price-band and property-subtype groups. Groups below 20 observations are omitted from that public comparison table; 20 is an editorial minimum, not a guarantee of statistical precision.

What buyers, sellers, and reporters can take from this

For buyers: Ask which asking price a quoted discount uses. Compare the current price with relevant closed sales and the full available listing history. The original price may explain the seller's starting position, but it does not establish the property's value today.

For sellers: A closing near the latest recorded asking price can coexist with a larger difference from the original price. Review both measures when assessing pricing decisions. The research does not establish that a price reduction caused a sale or that a different initial price would have produced a different outcome.

For reporters: The defensible finding is that changing the price baseline changes the measured gap within these supplied summer sales. The data do not establish statewide negotiation conditions, a year-over-year market shift, seller concessions, or future sale probabilities.

Methodology and scope

1. Source: Three Montana Regional MLS CSV exports supplied by Ashley Inglis, named in the source list below and dated September 25, 2026. This is an analysis of the supplied records; the original MLS search filters and completeness against all eligible transactions have not been independently established.
2. Population: 466 Missoula County, 202 Ravalli County, and 128 Whitefish closed records dated June 1 through August 31, 2026, inclusive. County exports and the Whitefish city-labeled export represent different geographic units. The pooled sample is not the whole Western Montana market.
3. Eligibility: Original List Price, List Price, and Close Price must each be numeric and greater than zero. Close Date must parse and fall within the stated window. All 796 records passed these checks. No duplicate Listing IDs were found across the three closed files. Listing IDs identify records; relisted properties cannot be independently deduplicated by parcel from these exports.
4. Calculations: Original-price gap = 100 × (Original List Price − Close Price) ÷ Original List Price. Exported-list gap = 100 × (List Price − Close Price) ÷ List Price. Positive values mean a closing below the selected asking price; negative values mean a closing above it. Calculate each ratio before taking its median. A median of ratios is not a ratio of median prices.
5. Price-field interpretation: List Price is labeled as the exported field. It has not been independently verified as the final pre-contract asking price. Original List Price is the original price recorded for that listing, not a verified first-ever asking price across every possible relisting.
6. Missing context: No concessions, repair credits, financing terms, contract dates, buyer identities, or dated price-change histories are provided. Closing prices do not measure seller net proceeds. The price analysis does not use Days On Market; a negative DOM value in one source record therefore does not enter these metrics.
7. Verification: Date eligibility, positive prices, and unique Listing IDs were checked. Independent Decimal arithmetic confirmed the headline median price differences. The source fingerprints and calculation definitions are in the methodology download.

Citation and reporting contact

Suggested citation: MT Lux Real Estate. Western Montana Asking-to-Sale Price Study. Published September 26, 2026. Analysis of 796 supplied Montana Regional MLS closed records, June–August 2026. Link to this report and retain the dates, geographies, sample size, and price baseline when quoting a result.

For questions about the study or a property-specific comparison, contact Ashley Inglis or call (406) 880-5985. For the consumer explanation, read How Much Below Asking Price Do Montana Homes Sell For?