Western Montana Active Listing Backlog Study

Study 02 · MT Lux Market Research

Research question: What did the supplied active inventory show on September 25, 2026 when listings were grouped by reported Days On Market and compared with their exported Original List Price and List Price?

This is a dated inventory snapshot, not a trendline. It does not show how many days a listing will take to sell, whether a seller is motivated, why a price changed, or what a buyer should offer. It does show how much of this supplied inventory had crossed practical review thresholds.

The active-inventory picture on September 25

All 1,159 supplied records were Active and had a finite, nonnegative reported Days On Market value. The combined median reported DOM was 85 days. Exactly 560 of 1,159 listings, or 48.3%, were at 90 days or more, including 243, or 21.0%, at 180 days or more. The threshold includes listings reported at exactly 90 or exactly 180 days.

The markets are export geographies, not interchangeable neighborhoods: Missoula County and Ravalli County are county exports, while Whitefish is city-labeled. The pooled count is useful for describing the supplied records, but it is not an estimate of the whole Western Montana market or a comparison adjusted for property mix, price, condition, acreage, or subtype.

Missoula County · 42.7% · 237 of 555
42.7%

Ravalli County · 51.0% · 196 of 384
51.0%

Whitefish · 57.7% · 127 of 220
57.7%

Each bar uses a 0%–100% scale. The table gives the count and denominator.

Where the reported DOM sits

More than half of the supplied inventory (651 of 1,159) sat between 30 and 179 reported days, so 90 days is better treated as a review point than as a verdict. A listing at 90 days may be new to a buyer's search, may have been relisted, may have unusual attributes, or may simply be priced in a part of the market that moves differently. These exports do not contain days-to-contract, prior listing history, seller instructions, or buyer feedback.

The 180+ bucket is a smaller but still substantial part of the snapshot: 243 listings. It should invite a more careful property-specific question, such as what has changed since it first appeared, which comparable listings are now available, and whether the current exported price reflects the property and the competition. The data do not support a claim that a 180-day listing is stale in a way that predicts a negotiation outcome.

Net endpoint repricing is common, but it is not a timeline

A net price cut in this study means the exported List Price was below the exported Original List Price. All 1,159 records had positive values for both fields; 548 met that definition, or 47.3% of the valid price-pair denominator. Among those 548 records with a net cut, the median endpoint reduction was 6.06%. Across all 1,159 valid pairs, the median was 0.0% because more than half did not have a lower exported List Price.

Those two medians answer different questions. The 6.06% figure describes the middle reduction only among records with a lower endpoint. The 0.0% figure describes the entire active snapshot. Neither is a recommended reduction, a concession estimate, or proof that a lower price caused demand to change.

Among the 560 listings at 90+ reported DOM, 361 had a net cut, or 64.5%. Among the 243 listings at 180+ DOM, 156 had a net cut, or 64.2%. The overlap is descriptive: it does not reveal whether time prompted a cut, whether a cut affected time, or whether either factor will affect a particular property.

How buyers, sellers, and reporters can use the snapshot

For buyers: A 90-day listing is a reason to investigate the current listing, not to assume leverage. Ask for relevant comparable properties, examine what is documented about price history, and separate the home's price from its inspection, financing, timing, and other terms. The companion asking-to-sale price study concerns completed summer sales and should not be used to convert an active-listing count into an offer formula.

For sellers: A 90- or 180-day threshold can be a useful scheduled review point. Compare the current position against active alternatives and genuinely comparable completed sales, then decide which evidence would justify a change. The snapshot cannot determine whether an original price was right, whether a net cut was warranted, or what next action will lead to a sale.

For reporters: The defensible story is that almost half of these supplied active records had reported DOM of 90 or more on one September date, and that price-field endpoints differ for many listings. It is not evidence of a regional trend, a full-market inventory count, buyer demand, seller distress, or a forecast.

Methodology and limitations

1. Source and scope: Three Montana Regional MLS Active CSV exports supplied by Ashley Inglis and dated September 25, 2026. The original MLS filters and completeness against all eligible listings were not independently established.
2. Population: 555 Missoula County, 384 Ravalli County, and 220 Whitefish Active records, for 1,159 supplied records. Whitefish is city-labeled while the others are county exports.
3. DOM eligibility: finite Days On Market values of zero or more. All 1,159 records qualified; no negative, missing, or nonfinite DOM values entered the counts.
4. Thresholds: 90+ means DOM greater than or equal to 90; 180+ means DOM greater than or equal to 180. Shares use the stated eligible denominator.
5. Price fields: net cut means exported List Price below exported Original List Price, with both positive. The exports do not provide dated price-change history, seller concessions, contract timing, buyer identities, motivation, or sale outcome.
6. Suppression: public segment comparisons contain at least 20 listings. That editorial threshold is not a statistical precision guarantee.
7. Verification: the aggregate counts, thresholds, and net-cut count were independently recomputed. Source hashes and calculation definitions are available in the methodology download.

Citation and local contact

Suggested citation: MT Lux Real Estate. Western Montana Active Listing Backlog Study. Published September 26, 2026. Analysis of 1,159 supplied Montana Regional MLS Active records dated September 25, 2026. Retain the snapshot date, geography, denominator, and reported-DOM definition when quoting these figures.

For a property-specific comparison in Missoula, the Bitterroot Valley, or Whitefish, contact Ashley Inglis or call (406) 880-5985. For the consumer explanation, read Is 90 Days on the Market a Red Flag in Montana?